From Poet : Wenger needs to pull off a surprise
Since last year, I’ve been feeling the same way as Joe Murphy that due to how dry the market for top strikers is, signing a world-class creative/goalscoring winger can achieve just as much.
First of all, I just want to say that Joe is unfortunately right when he said that “if the likes of Benzema or Lewandowski were attainable then Wenger would have been willing to pay double what we would have paid for Vardy.”
He’s not correct in the way he probably thinks he is though (ie. That if better strikers than Vardy were available, Wenger would sign him.) Yes, Wenger would double it, but here’s the problem: Lewa and Benza would cost more than double of Vardy. Valuation can still be a problem.
Let us not forget that in 13/14, Suarez and Higuain were both available. Wenger didn’t sign either. Now one is the best in the world, and the other, the most expensive.
Lets get back to the issue at hand: Can we win without a world-class striker?
Statistically, the odds are against us. IIRC, every team that has won the EPL have had their strikers scored most of the goals. The only exception was Mourinho’s Chelsea with Drogba.
Looking outwards, Bayern Munich was all-conquering in 12/13, and had a low-scoring striker in Mandzukic, but he was still top goal scorer.
In theory, it is possible. That’s why in theory, signing Mahrez makes sense.
Here’s why I’ve come to think that it wouldn’t work in reality:
1. We’d still need a new striker. At least Joe recognized that in his scenario. Drogba could rotate with Gudjohnsen and Mandzukic could rotate with Mario Gomez.
Who does Giroud rotate with? It used to be Danny Welbeck, but he’s going to miss almost the entire season. It’s not like he was reliable anyway. He has never scored double digit league goals, and there is a reason every manager he has worked with came to the conclusion to not play him as a no.9.
2. Most importantly, Wenger probably can’t achieve what Jose or Jupp did. Can he create a team that is as competitive as that Chelsea/Bayern team? Can he create a defense as mean as Chelsea’s? Can he dictate and control games as Bayern did?
The reality is, Wenger has never shown that he can create the other ingredients a team would need in order to win without having a high-scoring striker.
By not teaching defense, Wenger has backed himself into a corner. By not having adequate depth, Wenger has backed himself into a corner. By signing the best creative, but low-scoring no.10 in the world, he has backed himself into a corner.
The only way out of that corner is a world-class striker.
The absolute most influential signing he can make.
Either he sign a world-class striker, or do things he’s never done (eg. build a mean defence) Wenger needs to pull off a surprise, if he wants to win. I would never be happier to be proven wrong.
P.S. I’m not against signing Mahrez. Would love him. Just saying, we’d still need a striker.
Myles says:
With Wenger it’s only 70% fear.
The other 30% is snobbery.
He wants to be known as innovative.
For the rest of the world, the wheel is perfect and has worked beautifully for hundreds of years.
But rather than sign a world class striker, this snob prefers to re-invent the wheel.