Looks like Zidane v Ballack.Totti won’t get a kick

STEEL, passion, organisation, flair and luck.That’s what you need to win a World Cup. Also leadership.

England had those qualities in 1966, Argentina had them in 1978, and France had them in 1998.

FRANCE are the best team in the last four, clearly.They will beat Portugal and they would beat Italy.

Can  France beat Germany in Berlin? I’ll answer that question if it needs to be answered, later this week.

The Germans have momentum, huge momentum. Klinsi’s team is a runaway train that will take some stopping. They will roar down the field like a combine harvester, chewing up everything in a blue shirt.

Jurgen played for Inter Milan, so he knows the Italian mentality, knows how professionally they defend, how patiently they wait, how ruthlessly Gattuso will tackle, how sharply Cannavaro will jump and intercept, how great a keeper Buffon can be.

ITALY are not a team I’ve followed closely.The stench of corruption puts me off. The defenestration of Pessotto, the new sporting director of Juventus, puts me off. I hate currupt governments and corrupt organisations.Why did Pessotto try to kill himself?Because he found out that his titles, his medals, were meaningless? Because Luciano Moggi had fixed the referees ? Finding that out  might make anybody suicidal.

Now, today, Germany v Italy  forces me to think about  Italian football, which I haven’t done in a long time.

WHEN  C4 started showing Serie A, I loved it. In live games I could see that superstars were human. In highlights they had  looked superhuman. But in live games I saw Marco van Basten  put headers  over the bar, Ruud Gullit hit the sidenetting, Frank Rijkaard  miss a tackle. I once saw Franco Baresi beaten on the  byeline by Tomas Doll of Lazio,  and told Chris Waddle that I was surprised by that. Chris  had seen it and he was surprised as well.

Italian football,  we used to enjoy it and talk about it so much.

Back then, in 1999, when Parma were fourth and winning the Uefa Cup, they had Buffon,  Crespo, Thuram and Cannavaro, plus Veron, big Dino Baggio in midfield, Chiesa. A very good team !

Now I watch Spanish, never Italian.

But back then I even taped Gazzetta Football Italia. I’ve never been a man who tapes TV programmes when he is out and watches them later, but I  did it  three times  for Cheers, when I went to gigs on Friday nights,  and five or six  times for Gazzetta Football Italia on Saturday mornings when we took Caroline to football training with Wembley-Mill Hill Under 15s, had a swim and a coffee,  picked her up,  came back, ate lunch on our laps while we watched  the witty James Richardson having a laugh with Paul Ince, then we dashed out together, Caroline to the Junior Gunners, me to the press box.

DOES LIPPI’S team have steel, flair, organisation and passion? Can they beat Germany in Dortmund tonight? Wouldn’t that be a stupendous achievement?

Not having studied Luca Toni playing for Fiorentina, I cannot say whether he is any good. I just don’t know if he is the striker to dismantle 21-year old Christoph Metzelder, who is playing in his home stadium.

Germany began like a whirlwind, beating Costa Rica 4-2, and realised  that you cannot concede two goals in every World Cup game. So they have tightened  up a lot since then and kept the same eleven whenever possible.

Unlike England’s complacent, unbalanced team, Germany have improved during the tournament. Since they lost a friendly 4-1  in Italy in  March, they have done nothing but improve.

BEFORE SERIE A was ever screened on British TV my flatmate John Mair and I went to see a game that was experimentally shown live at the Rainbow Theatre in Finsbury Park, near where we lived. Juventus were playing and Cabrini, the left back, scored the only  goal with a great shot.

In 1978, Mair used to come round to watch some of Argentina’s games with us. He really loved that high-energy Ardiles-Kempes team,which generated a lot of momentum and was cheered on by a wildly enthusiastic home crowd in Buenos Aires.

That team was  managed by the tall, chain-smoking Cesar Menotti.On Sunday Mair asked if I had heard about Klinsmann bumping into Menotti the other day. I hadn’t heard that one. Menotti said ,”I’ve been watching  your team, and I’m impressed. But you should move  Frings closer to your back four.”

So Jurgen moved Frings closer to his back four, and it worked, and he said, “I must thank Menotti for that !”

FRINGS is suspended tonight but I still  reckon the Germans will win. I don’t think Totti will get a kick. He might do a Rooney and get a red card.

To me, Italian football is violence hidden inside elegance. It’s an Armani suit covering a Beretta in a shoulder-holster. It’s gangsters who love their families.

But I hope that Totti doesn’t swing a vicious elbow, like De Rossi, because when I first watched the teenage Totti I liked him a lot. The Roman street warrior seemed to combine Gazza’s  bounce with Dalglish’s seriousness.

Incidentally, it’s ominous that Rooney says he was gobsmacked to be sent off. If he won’t admit a deliberate stamp, if he won’t apologise to his team for a big mistake, he will not have a major career. Denial is so dangerous. Denial makes Roo more like Gazza, and that is deeply disaappointing.

But, as I always say, as I said about rock groups in  the Seventies, Britain is a major source of talent, but not a major source of professionalism.

Look at Andy Murray yesterday.A grumpy Scottish teenager, the  best tennis player Britain has ever produced, has no coach, no fitness coach, eats pizza, beats No.3 seed Roddick but loses next time out to a Cypriot, Baghdatis, seeded 18,  who is only a year older.

In three sets ! At least Murray blames himself, at  least he is not in denial. He said it was totally his own fault.

It’s now July 4th and the World Cup final is on  Sunday, Franck Ribery is so hot he might burst into flames, Zidane is smiling, Domenech has switched his mobile phone off, the 64-match marathon  is almost over, and I’m starting to think about holidays, starting to look at flights.