Hi Myles,
The Rochester Castle is still going strong. It holds the questionable accolade of being the oldest Whetherspoon’s still in existence. Some of the clientele give it a slight care in the community feel.
I read your website regularly and find myself disagreeing with 90% of what you write, but you write opinions and I like opinions. I prefer strong opinions to people who state the obvious and sit on the fence.
Arsene Wenger is still the Titanium Man is the best piece I’ve ever read on le Professeur.
You’re right – he did do all the calculations and so far most of them have been spot on.
Fans complain we spend too much on wages and not enough on transfers, but the uncompromising scientist that is Arsene Wenger knew that it is far more sensible to spend on wages.
Wage spending is a far better indicator of where a team will finish. It’s all in the maths. Over a period of several years wage expenditure has a far higher correlation with league position than transfer spending. In fact it is a very accurate predictor of a teams average league position over several years.
You can be sure that the only manager in the league with a masters in Economics would have checked the statistics. He knew that by minimising what he spent on transfers so as to maximise what he spent on wages he could keep the club in those precious champions league places year on year. Since the Emirates move our wage spending has been higher than the clubs outside the top 4 but lower than the top two teams and that’s exactly where we’ve finished.
I see your point about the possibility of a slight masochism on Arsene’s part in making things harder in the short term. His pursuit of footballing rightousness has always had a hint of the religious fanatic in it.
The scandals in France affected him massively – it was all so unfair, the great injustice of it.
Morality was the goal – but morality was not only avoiding this type of cheating – morality was playing football a certain way, having players who were nice guys off the pitch, spending within your means. Everything has to be done the “right” way, even if this makes it more difficult. Fervent, artistic idealism carried out by the detail-obsessed scientist.
This has already been a long email, so I won’t get into my thoughts on some of his other calculations. Suffice to say I believe we’re coming to the end of the 5 or so barren years you talked about in that piece. I think it’s time to start winning again and I think Arsene still has the appetite and still knows what winning involves.
The statistical view on wage and transfer spending came from an insightful book called Why England Lose. Well worth reading if you haven’t already.
Apparently I Write Like David Foster Wallace.
Cheers,
Lawrence Bowen
Myles replies :
This thoughtful, balanced piece will probably trigger an explosion of emails.
Optimists thrive in July. They look forward and hope. They look back and forget.