Who will score Arsenal’s goal in Milan ?

When Arsenal started playing in the Champions League, I hoped there would be nights when they took on the establishment.

When they played Bayern Munich at Highbury, the establishment was Real Madrid-Juventus-Manchester United-Bayern. Those clubs got to finals and semi-finals all the time.

So that was a massive game. Henry scored a great early goal and raced over to assault the corner flag. Arsenal were beating the establishment 1-0. As Kanu’s  long shot was floating through the air I was thinking : If this goes in, we’re beating the establishment 2-0. And the ball curled and dipped and hit the inside of the post and went in !

Arsenal 2 Bayern 0 ! What an exciting moment that was.

But they didn’t defend Effenberg’s free-kick properly and the final score was 2-2.

By the time Arsenal played Valencia at Highbury, Valencia were part of the establishment and had the most solid defence in Europe and the one thing you didn’t want to see was Valencia scoring first. No team would want to be 1-0 down at home to them. Another free kick, a ball deflected off Lee Dixon to Ayala, who volleyed in as neatly as his mate Crespo would have done. That was one of the biggest “Bloody hell !!! ” moments I ever saw at Highbury. But then Arsenal equalised and then….. Ray Parlour rocked the stadium with the greatest goal of his career. Literally rocked the stadium, made me wonder about the safety of that old structure.

So Arsenal beat Valencia 2-1. Over there, Carew’s header beat Seaman and they lost on that Ayala away goal.

Real Madrid away, the galacticos expected to win, and Woodgate went off injured and Thierry Henry waltzed through on his own and slotted past Casillas and the second leg was 0-0 at Highbury. Clean sheets can get you to finals in Europe.

It’s really fun to measure yourself against the glamour teams. And AC Milan are a glamour team. Say what you like about Berlusconi, he has been, overall, good for football. While he has been president, Milan have had some superb teams and played a lot of stylish, thrilling football .

Tuesday night, the second half of the Arsenal-Milan tie starts with the score at 0-0.

We have not seen Milan attack yet. We’ve seen their defence and it controlled 75 of the 90 minutes at the Emirates, where Arsenal played 4-5-1 at home with Eduardo on the left wing. We have not seen their attack because they did not try to attack in the first leg, only a little bit

Milan are the establishment and the holders. Pirlo and Gattuso won the World Cup in 2006. Maldini has won everything a footballer can win. Kaka is the highest-paid player in the world  and the World Player of the Year and, as I’ve always said, the only player in the world who is not for sale. Kaka is 25 and just signed a new contract keeping him at Milan till 2013. Most of this team are legends, especially Seedorf, who is out with a hamstring, we are told. Their shooting from distance is awesome. Pato is young, fast and tricky, and so is Paloschi. Two dangerous 18-year old strikers. Gilardino is ordinary but Pippo Inzaghi is a pure goalpoacher. Not much of a footballer but can score against anybody.

Therefore this game is a stretch. Taking on AC Milan at the San Siro is a big challenge, a big opportunity. But it’s a stretch. If Arsenal can go though by drawing 1-1 they will be heroes.

Last year, when Arsenal lost 2-1 to PSV on aggregate, I said that if you have a top 16 squad, you will not reach the last eight.

This time, Arsenal don’t have to win to beat the establishment. A 1-1 draw will be enough.

Before the first Milan game I thought Arsenal’s most likely scorer was Fabregas. At some point he would make a run into a scoring position, I was sure. And in the first half he did that but Adebayor’s pass was terrible. Cesc hasn’t scored recently but I thought he would be the man to break the deadlock. The opening was there but the pass was rubbish. A goal then would have changed the game completely. It would have changed the tie completely..

Quite often in the Champions League, Arsenal have been absolutely brilliant, and at other times they’ve been close. But my overall feeling, based on everything I’ve seen since they started playing in the Champions League against Lens in 1998, is that they have always been one goal short of where they want to be. One goal? One lousy goal? It doesn’t sound like a lot. But one goal can be everything in this game and this competition.

Arsenal need a goal and I don’t know who will score it.

This morning at 10.30 a.m. I walked round the corner to buy The Guardian, as always, and spoke to John, my gambling greengrocer, who had a small knife in one hand and a cabbage in the other.

“D’you fancy Arsenal in Milan ?”

“I’ve had 200 quid on them, ” he said. “I think Arsenal will score and they’ll wave the white flag.”