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ARSENE WENGER is a cautious man who plays daring football and Jose Mourinho is a daring man who plays cautious football.

Arsene’s serenity tends to disguise the audacity of his team’s attacking style.

Jose’s moody flamboyance tends to disguise the controlled possession habits of his team.

The Champions League rewards teams who are able to defend efficiently and stubbornly.

That’s why I think Chelsea will edge through against Barcelona : they are equipped to win 1-0 or 2-0.

I heard that Mourinho gives each player a DVD of his direct opponent.

Dunno if that’s true, but Paulo Ferreira’s DVD must be three hours long if it contains all Ronaldinho’s tricks. I want a copy.

He says, “Mourinho knows how to nullify me. “

But Ronaldinho is the world’s most resourceful footballer, so he might roam around.

If it’s not working on the left, he will be playing in the box, on the right, from the centre circle.

Barca need to score in the first 20.

If it’s 0-0 after half an hour and Chelsea have tied up Barca’s short passing game with a tenacious midfield defence which might be built on Makelele/Smertin, Eto’o and co will start to get anxious.

If it’s 0-0 after an hour, it will be Frank’s night. One pass from Eidur and bang !

But, of course, it would be lovely to see a democratic club beat an oligarch.

I RECKON Chelsea could turn round a 3-1 by beating Bayern Munich 2-0.

And George Graham’s Arsenal could do the same.

But everybody I know thinks Bayern will score a goal.

And one of my closest associates reckons Bayern will score in the first 20 minutes.

With Gilberto and Sol Campbell, a 2-0 it might have been possible.

Some friends tell me they don’t rate German football, and don’t think Bayern are that good. We shall see.

RONALDINHO says all four English clubs will go out.

He would say that – and he may be right.

Liverpool take a 3-1 lead to Leverkusen. I fancy them to squeeze through.

Yes, we know that Leverkusen can score four goals. And I rate them highly.

I tipped the Germans to win at Anfield because Liverpool are the weakest of our four teams , but they crashed 3-1, which shows how unpredictable this game can be.

I WAS WRONG to say that AC Milan outclassed Man United two weeks ago.

They only outclassed them in phases of the game.

What happened was that without Shevchenko they played five in midfield.

Seedorf and Gattuso are tanks, and Kaka, Pirlo and Rui Costa are fluid ball-players with huge experience.

Kaka is 22 and acquired his maturity in a previous life. Voted best player in Serie A by his fellow pros. Think about it.

What I reckon happened in the first leg was this : With Shevchenko, Milan would have sat back and Shev would have attacked.

Without Shev, the whole Milan team attacked.

They pushed up and played a high line and swamped midfield with their interpassing techniques.

Rooney, for the first time in any game I’ve seen, looked a bit lost.

Having said that, Roy Carroll lost the game by allowing Seedorf’s shot to pop up and bounce to Crespo.

United were cranking up the tempo, and starting to bombard the box, and they might have won if Carroll had not boobed.

So they were outclassed for long spells, but they could still have won.

Is Tim Howard a better pop-up blocker than Carroll?

Milan will find out by testing Howard with long shots. It could be : same again, chaps.

SIR ALEX may be playing mindgames with Van Nistelrooy.

He talked about him. He put him up for interview.

But Ruud looks rusty to me. He needs 10 more games.

A big lad, he needs 10 games to get sharp after being out for 20 games.

So that could be a wind-up by Fergie.

I have serious doubts about whether United’s best interests would be served by starting Ruud van Rustlerooy at the San Siro tonight.

Ruud says he has done a lot of training in the last two weeks. But Nesta looked amazingly agile in the Milan derby, when Kaka won the game with a deflection of Gattuso’s shot.

Nesta looked the finest centreback in the world that night.

He is very brave and so quick he can reach balls other defenders would not go for. If you make a back for Nesta, he can head the ball and tumble over you and land without cracking his collarbone – an important skill in a defender’s repertoire.

Keeper Dida is almost as quick on his feet as an NBA star.

He made a mind-boggling save from Veron in that derby on Sunday 27 February.

YES, I fancy Milan tonight.

They can mix it up : some pretty passes, some 50-yard passes, some crosses from the right, some from the left, some dribbling in the middle third, but not risky dribbling.

Milan are very Italian and if they have any silly Italian moments they could blow it.

It’s a very big night for Wayne. But he is too young for it. The game has come a year too soon for him.

But he might get a goal.

Rooney might get a goal because he is a special talent whose gifts take him beyond the geometry of a situation: Like Ronaldinho, like Gazza, he can get the ball in a position that looks totally unpromising, and, by sheer vision, power, skill and desire, create a goal from it.

Last season we saw Pandiani take Milan apart. Van Nistelrooy is like Pandiani in style. But, as I say, he is not match fit.

THIS IS the biggest week we’ve had in football for a long, long time.

We have eight 180-minute games poised at half-time

This is as good it gets. After tonight and tomorrow night, the games will get tighter.

And, clearly, it would be better for the spectacle of the quarter-finals if Arsenal and Barcelona go through.

Let’s face it, Bayern v Juventus would be pretty dour.

From now on, most coaches will be cautious, not daring.

LAST NIGHT we went to a showcase at the Canadian High Commission and saw Kathleen Edwards, a 26-year old singer-songwriter who looks about 19.

After five songs and three glasses of red wine, my pal Pat said, “I could listen to her all night. She’s got perfect pitch.”

Kathleen talked about being snowed in recently, all airports closed, with her band waiting in New York to do Letterman.

The only way she could get there was a Greyhound bus, which was pretty horrible. “People sleeping on the floor, fights…”

Pat and I didn’t know that Canada produces wine.

Apparently, there are micro-climates in a valley in British Columbia and in the Niagara peninsula. Pat loves the red and plans to get a bottle from Sainsbury’s.

Listening while I’ve been writing this, Back To Me is one of those albums where I like each song exactly in proportion to how much I like the tempo, the rhythm track.

One of my favourites is the ebullient What Are You Waiting For? A tune you’ll never hear on the radio. She sings a word that I use every day, every hour.

March 8th 2005.

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HISTORY was made at St Mary’s.

Arsene bawled out Robin van Persie.

Robin got a yellow card for an elbow on Delapp in 31 and another for a wild tackle on Le Saux.

For the last 20 years, Arsene Wenger has seen 21-year old players make silly tackles.

But he has never shouted angrily at an Arsenal player in public.

A glare was as far as his disapproval ever went.

This was a first.

Van Persie hasn’t learned much since December 2nd, when Mark Halsey could easily have sent him off in the Carling Cup defeat at Old Trafford (1-0, Bellion).

Of 54 red cards, was this the first time a player has been sent off when the team is winning?

Most reds come when Arsenal are losing or drawing.

Really, Arsenal’s ten men should be able to beat Southampton’s ten.

On the plus side, Vieira was excellent. His best game for years.

On 35, Pruton crunched Flamini’s ankle with a late tackle.

Flamini saw it coming and got his leg off the ground just before impact.

On 43, Pruton perpetrated an X-certificate assault on Pires, who left the field on a stretcher and will be out for three weeks.

Then Pruton went ape, shoving the referee.

Clichy came on for Pires.

In 45, Cole’s shot rebounded and Henry did well to turn and take out two defenders with a ball across the goalmouth for Freddie to knock in.

1-0 to the Arsenal at half -time.

Second half should be a doddle, right?

WRONG !

Van Persie will abort his Arsenal career if he continues to dribble in the wrong areas.

In the middle third, as a pro, you play one and two-touch.You play the way you are facing.

Van Persie could have passed to Flamini five yards away or to Vieira ten yards away.

Serious pros don’t dribble, lose it, and then make a kamikaze tackle trying to rectify the error.

IN 67, LEHMANN made a colossal blunder, coming out seven yards for Redknapp’s superb corner but not punching the ball, or even jumping.

Senderos was nowhere near the ball either and a Peter Crouch header sent it bouncing down and up and in off the underside, between Freddie and Ashley on the line.

The game finished 1-1 after reserve keeper Paul Smith, ex- Brentford, made three good saves.

PPV’s George Graham said, “Arsenal’s finishing was poor.”

Quite !

Alan Hansen said that defence is based on trust.

The back four don’t trust Lehmann. He does not trust them. So he feels he has to come for everything.

His boob was a big one. It was a grotesque clanger. And it cost a goal.

BUT UNDERSTAND THIS : Arsenal have had three keepers this season.

Lehmann1 was flawed, but the best at the club. He was OK until he was dropped.

Yes, he made mistakes last season and cost Arsenal the Chelsea quarter-final in the Champions league,.

But Arsenal were unbeaten in 38 Prem games and he played in every game. Henry played 37, Campbell 35.

Almunia was never gonna last the rest of the season.

And Lehmann2 came back as a damaged man, a reduced goalkeeper, only 70% of the goalkeeper he was before.

Lehmann1 was blamed and reviled and dropped and shattered – and then he mutated into Lehmann2, a shadow of what he was.

What will Lehmann2 be like in Sheffield? What will he be like against Portsmouth?

STILL, ROONEY cheered me up.

His goals against Portsmouth were sublime.

The first was a Jimmy Greaves, a minimalist near-post stab of Gary Neville’s inswinging cross : sweet, neat, perfectly understated

His second, at 1-1, was the kind of goal Charlie Nicholas used to score when he was 19 and playing for Celtic.

Van Nastelrooy gave Rooney a good pass and his first touch left Stefanovic for dead and he drove from right to left into the box, perfectly balanced and compact, and faked out the keeper, sat him down on his arse, and slotted it near post.

Maximum composure, maximum killer instinct, something that cannot be taught.

DIFFERENT CLASS !!!

Two goals in 8 and 81 minutes

Rooney is the most complete British striker since Dalglish. And he can head the ball, which Kenny couldn’t

Dalglish was the finest player of his generation.

Best had half a career, finishing proper football at 27, while Dalglish scored 112 in 204 league games for Celtic and 118 in 354 league games for Liverpool.

Dalglish played his first game for Celtic in 1969 and he was 39 when he made his final appearance for Liverpool as a sub in 1990.

Rooney’s career will not last 21 years, so true aficionados of the great game should enjoy him now.

OVER THE YEARS I’ve never paid much attention to commentators, other than Martin Tyler, but I often say things that they say moments later. I’m sure many fans do the same thing.

It happened again when Portsmouth’s Greek was mentioned in the Man United game..

Myles : “Skopelitis sounds like a bone disease.”

Martin : “Skopelitis sounds like a disease.”

Jan : “He’s listening to you.”

I NEVER DOUBTED that Chelsea would beat Liverpool in the Carling Cup Final, but, unfortunately, I backed them to win in 90 minutes.

Riise scored after 43 seconds when Morientes skipped round Gallas and crossed to the far post where Paulo Ferreira was ball-watching . He did not know that Riise was behind him.

If Mourinho had not sold Babayaro to Newcastle in the window, Baba could haved played left back when Bridge broke his shin, and Gallas could have partnered Terry in the middle, and that Riise goal would not have been scored .

Gerrard headed an o.g. after 79 to equalise, and Chelski won 3-2 in extra time.

Anchorman Didi Hamann was magnificent.Carragher and Finnan were very good.

Hyypia played his best game in months, Luis Garcia ditto.

Terry and Drogba were committed to win every ball in extra time. Those two had presence. They were really up for every challenge. And that, more than anything, won the Carling Cup.

It was an exciting, absorbing game, fiercely but fairly contested, only one little melee in extra time. As a match it made Southampton v Arsenal look pretty stale and tame.

MOURINHO had sulked out of Barcelona last week and was sent off in Cardiff for a gesture to the Liverpool fans behind the dug-out.

He lost his temper, put his finger to his lips, then said it was directed at the English press! Ridiculous !

Half-time sub Eidur Gudjohnsen added flair.

A brainy player, inventing the play from moment to moment, he improved an attack which was stuttering.

He created the goal for 2-1, the Kezman goal, by shooting against Dudek from a narrow angle, knowing no keeper could hold the shot.

Three of the five goals were from set-pieces, the kind of goal that Arsenal rarely score, stabbed in from one yard.

Drogba grabbed one after a monumental long throw by Glen Johnson.

Then Nunez headed in after Terry headed a ball vertically and Cech, paralysed on his line, never got off his feet for a punch. Cech did a Lehmann, but it didn’t matter,

Chelsea had 66% possession and won 3-2.

Arsenal had 66% possession and drew 1-1.

Arsenal’s goals have dried up. They only score one a game now and every goal has to be scored or made by Thierry.

Apprehensive about the Bramall Lane replay ?

Cross your fingers and hope Thierry has a good night.

February started with a 4-2 defeat by Man United and it’s been a black month for Gooners.

March will be better : Gilberto will be back.

February 28th

STOP PRESS – 8.15 Tuesday morning :

Thierry Henry is out with an achilles injury.