He talked about Putin and Syria last night.
Then he talked about China, terrorism and Donald Trump.
It was a Prospect magazine event with Sir John Sawers and he was onstage with editor Bronwen Maddox in a super-comfortable little theatre in the basement of their offices at 2, Queen Ann’s Gate.
Sir John was Chief of MI6, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, from 2009-2014.
Born in Bath, educated at Nottingham University, St Andrews and Harvard, he was tapped up by M16, didn’t enjoy his first posting in Yemen, realised he was keener on policy, joined the Foreign Office, served in Damascus, South Africa, Washington and Baghdad.
He was our ambassador to the UN from 2007 to 2009.
On Syria, he said that Putin had shaped the battlefield and the transition, and wanted to preserve his assets there.
He said that the Ukraine suffers from poor government and lots of corruption but is not a lost cause, that Iran is a long way from a military nuclear capability, and that Trump will become the Republican nominee.
Prior to Edward Snowden, he said big tech companies had a sensible dialogue with intelligence people but Snowden drove a wedge between the two. The current Apple/FBI argument was mentioned.
On sanctions, he said, “People have too high expectations of sanctions.”
I was rather surprised to hear him say, “Saudi Arabia is a really complex place.” He insisted that the Saudis have been an important ally to the West through their energy production and in preserving stability in the Gulf region.
Bronwen recalled that when she worked at the FT, the Saudi PR scored an own-goal by boasting that, “We’ve achieved 60 years of progress without change.”
Sir John told us that their budget is based on an oil price of $95 a barrel, not $30.
He said that, “The next 50 years of world stability will be shaped by the USA-China relationship.”
Having worked as a diplomat, he naturally believes it’s best to be friends with certain countries and talk to them and gradually persuade them to change their ways. You shouldn’t be too judgemental or stand-offish, he reckons. A good strategy is: Absorb rising powers before they challenge the present system.
After talking to Bronwen onstage, Sir John took questions, including one from a Channel 4 News reporter.
Asked about China being vast but opaque, he said, “It’s designed to be opaque.”
On our military airfields, which were never shown on our Ordnance Survey maps during the Cold War, he said, “They had maps of our military airfields but we had maps of their closed cities.”
In counter-terrorism intelligence, we need partners, especially in Germany, France, Greece and Turkey.
Having been in charge of security for the 2012 London Olympics, he had been able to tell the PM he was fairly sure London would not be attacked. But added, “It would be a damn sight harder if the London Olympics were in 2016.”
The seven terrorist plots that David Cameron said we foiled were, he reckoned, “not as sophisticated as the Bataclan attack, I don’t think.”
After over-running the scheduled hour and a quarter, we adjourned upstairs for drinks and chit chat.
This Prospect crowd turned out to be a good mix of young, old and middle aged. One old boy said he’d been at school in Scotland: “Norman Lamont was my prefect. Alastair Darling was at our school as well. They were both useless Chancellors.”
Then I strolled back to Westminster tube with my friend.
I said, “He was even smoother than I expected.”
Miran said, “He’s like James Bond, I couldn’t see him think.”
I said: “My brother once said, ‘When girls go out with me they have to learn to take the smooth with the smooth.’”
Miran said, “Stephen Fry said Heineken is smoother than a cashmere codpiece.”
We got the Jubilee Line back to Willesden.
How do I feel about Sir John this morning? Reassured. We need guys like him.
Prospect’s next event is a free one about cybercrime.