Too soon to say if Roberto Mancini will be a good manager in England.
I’ve had a feeling, since watching City win the first leg 2-1, that Manchester United might smash them 5-0 in the second leg.
But now Rio Ferdinand will miss tonight’s game AND the Arsenal game on Sunday.
Rio has until 6 pm to appeal a three-match ban for violent conduct against Hull striker Craig Fagan during that 4-0 victory last Saturday. It’s a clear-cut elbow incident. If Rio appeals, and is found guilty at a hearing tomorrow, he will get a four-match ban, so he won’t appeal.
This is a serious blow for United. But I still think they might smash City tonight.
Last week’s first leg was most exciting game of the season so far and this will be a thriller, even if there are not many goals. It might only be 1-0 or 1-1.
I’d rather see Man City win, as I have a soft spot for them, ever since we used to go to Maine Road, which was very near the university.
I’m told Mancini spends a lot of time with his defenders in training. I love managers who can teach defence and care about defence. You can already see the results of his work in the City penalty area, where, under Mark Hughes, big spaces appeared and alarming things happened.
Now there are no spaces in City’s penalty area.
I’ve had that feeling that United might smash their upstart neighbours and I’ve had to try to examine it, try to explain it, try to figure out where that feeling came from. Feelings are often irrational.
I’ve been thinking about this for five days.
Conclusion : Manchester United will handle the pressure better than City.
Darren Fletcher will have a big game, Valencia has found his feet now, and Patrice Evra is the kind of warrior that United have always needed and always had. I don’t know what side Sir Alex will pick but he won’t play Anderson off Rooney again, as he did in the first leg.
My impression over the last two years has been that, more than most footballers, Wayne Rooney really likes other players, even his opponents.
In an interview in the current Four Four Two magazine, talking candidly and affectionately about Tevez , he says, “Carlos was a lovely fella, an honest player who ran for 90 minutes every week and you can’t ask for more from a team-mate. I think he realised early on that I’m quite an unselfish player, that if he was in a better position I would give him the ball and that if he stayed up I would drop back to cover. We had that great bond where we’d work for each other and, because we lived round the corner from one another, we’d drive each other to training or drive to the airport together for away games.”
Rooney says that while Cristiano came inside and did tricks and had shots, Valencia crosses the ball more, so he has to be on his toes in the box a lot more now. If the ball’s coming in he has really concentrate for every second to be on the end of it.
So tonight will be very interesting. Rooney’s movement in the box is bright and forceful, but Mancini will have been working on how to defend Valencia’s crosses. So Rooney won’t have as much room as he did when he scored all four against Hull.
And in a game like this, Evra might turn out to be United’s best forward. He often is.
But with City are already winning 2-1 before kick-off, their best bet is to push up and hunt for the ball in United’s half and force errors. If they want to win the game or get a draw, that’s the best way to do it.
Therefore I’d play Shawn Wright-Phillips and Stephen Ireland, who have the desire to run without the ball as well as with it. Both have big engines and both are penetrating counter-attackers.
But pressing is not City’s natural way of playing, and certainly not the best way for Craig Bellamy to use his pace.
Richards or Boyata at centreback with Kompany? Richards at right back again, I think. If he pairs De Jong & Gareth Barry, two one-paced midfielders, City could get pulverised.
There are 14 teams in the EPL who know they will never win anything.
Manchester City are not now in that bracket. They want to win something ASAP and the Carling Cup will do for starters.
Best bet? Over 2.5 goals.
I can’t wait.
I wish it was kicking off at 10 a.m.