Dear Myles,
Thanks for the great articles, keep up the good work.
Attach some of my own thoughts on the current state of play with our club.
The Wenger “formula” will achieve success, but only in terms of turning Arsenal into a feeder club for Europe’s elite.
1. Since the summer of 2005, Arsene Wenger has built a team that focuses on youth development, rather than getting the right balance of youth and experience. I would argue that Arsene’s focus on youth development has been driven by the following:
a) the financial constraints of building a new stadium
b) Arsene’s vision of developing a team for the future, that consists primarily of players nurtured and developed by Arsene alone or
c) a combination of “a” and “b”.
Either way it does not matter, as the end result is the same : a consistent lack of silverware since May 2005.
It’s ironic that since May 2005, Arsenal football club has exceeded all expectations in terms of increasing its annual revenue, launching its new stadium within budget and a head of schedule – no mean feat.
Yet on the pitch the club has has gone backward. The scary thing is that nobody within the club, including Arsene and the Arsenal Board, seem to be uncomfortable about the consistent lack of silverware.
Since the Invincibles were disassembled summer by summer, it seems OK for the Arsenal hierarchy to accept 3rd or 4th in the Premiership, or to accept the inevitable elimination from the Champions League at the quarter final stage. Provided that the style of football along the way was “easy on the eye”.
Do the means justify the ends? In this case I think not. Football is about one thing, it’s called winning, anyone who thinks otherwise should seek a profession outside of professional football.
2. So what is the consequence of being over reliant on youth development to fill key roles within the first team and squad ?
Well, the obvious factor is that Arsenal will not win the Premiership or the Champions League with this approach. By “approach” I mean the vanity of “the Arsene Way”. The performances by the Arsenal team in 2007/08 campaign proves that the team did not have enough experience or professional “know-how” in order to win the big games or turn draws into wins, on days when the team performed below par. Those are surely the characteristics of Premiership winners year in year out. Yes, experience may bring talent and flashes of brilliance, but it also brings professional street fighter instincts on how to win games that you should really lose when the chips are down. Take a look at Liverpool in the 80’s and Man United in the 1990’s.
The low number of world class players in the Arsenal squad has also contributed to a club performing below it’s potential. As winter turned to spring and the injuries clocked up for Wenger and the points were dropped with a run of draws and losses throughout March and April.
How many games against the Big 4 did Arsenal win last season ? Sadly, just 1. If you exclude the Chelsea victory at the Emirates, Arsenal drew 3 other games against the rest of their Big 4 counterparts and lost away to both Man Utd and Chelsea.
So out of a possible 18 points, Arsenal only picked up 6 points in “The Inner League of the Big 4”.
These games are the crucial six-pointers. If you take a closer look at some of the performances in those key games, the street smartness of an Adams, Bould and Dixon would surely have provided the much needed savvy to grind out victories, when it was “backs to the wall” time in key games.
3. The over-reliance on youth as a basis to building a first team and a squad will be counter-productive in the long run. The longer a team goes without winning silverware the more difficult it is to hold on to the truly talented players in the team.
Top players want to win things, they don’t aspire to play for 3rd or 4th in the Premiership year in, year out, or target the quarter finals of the champions league as being the summit of their ambitions. That is the stuff for players past their best ,or the many European feeder clubs, like Ajax.
My hunch is that these ambitions may suit the Arsenal Board as Champions League qualification each year keeps the revenue rolling in and keeps the Banks at bay. Even if there is an absence of silverware year on year. Better to stick with this outcome each year and pay the bills rather than ditch Wenger and risk the nightmare of non-qualification for the Champions League.
If Arsene and the Arsenal Board believe they can achieve more than the above with the current first team and squad then they really are living in fantasy land.
Players like Hleb, Flamini, Vieira, Edu and Henry have all moved on to Europe’s top clubs, we can debate on whether or not it was right to sell them at the time of their respective departures. But that’s an academic point, the key question should really be “was each player replaced by a player of equivalent quality on their exit?” Aside from Hleb, I would say no, and performances on the pitch suffered as result.
Adeybayor was close to leaving the club this summer. How long will it be before Cesc Fabregas, Clichy and Sagna are made offers from Europe’s elite ? How long before the lure winning silverware at one of Europe’s elite clubs becomes an offer that Arsenal’s top talent cannot refuse?
That brings me back to my point : if a club does not have the right balance of youth and experience, it won’t win the Premiership and the Champions League titles. Arsenal have now regressed in the category of perennial European “also-rans”.
The long-term impact of no silverware is two-fold:
a) Talented and ambitious players take flight to the top successful clubs and
b) It’s near impossible to attract the best players in Europe to the club.
So what’s the remedy? Well, you have to strengthen the squad year on year, sometimes you have to buy in quality rather than slowly nurture it “in house”. You don’t put yourself in a place where every season becomes a story about “rebuilding” with an over-reliance on young players.
My conclusion is that Arsene and the Arsenal Board are either unwilling or unable to buy in the experienced professional players required to improve the overall quality of the squad. That’s what it takes to take the club to the next level on the pitch (as well as sustain year on year growth in revenue).
Insiders at the club may talk about the the progress made by the Arsenal team last season. But let’s think about what the “progress” consisted of? Third place in the Premiership and elimination at quarter-final of the Champions League. Is that really progress? One place higher in the Premiership and one stage further in the Champions League when compared with the previous season.
So, in my view, these are the problem areas. The forecast is bleak, there are no visible signs of change within the club, no renewed ambitions, no willingness to bring in the much needed experience.
There is only talk about how another trophyless season would not be regarded as “unsuccessful”, of how teenage players with great potential showed “maturity” against such teams as FC Twente and West Bromwich Albion.
Is that the level of performance that we are now comfortable with as a club?
Sadly, that appears to be the case.
regards,
Mark