From Andy Hill : Can Arsenal still finish in the top four?
Dear Myles,
The Spurs game was a ‘must win game’; quite literally.
A north-London derby should not be a ‘must win’ game. They are unpredictable, indifferent to form, and anybody partial to a flutter would always back a draw.
It became a ‘must win’ game after the spineless and inept performances in the previous two league games. Two games Arsenal should have won to put themselves in catching distance of Leicester and with a shot at the title.
The question now is not : Can Arsenal still win the title, but can they still finish in the top four?
A little back-of-an-envelope maths suggests that there is still hope.
First, let’s look at the title race, so we can put that distant hope safely to bed.
In the past five seasons, on average, and allowing for superior goal difference, the title winner required 2.12 points a game to finish above the rest.
Leicester are currently averaging 2.07 points a game. Arsenal 1.79.
That suggests, assuming Leicester maintain their average, and taking goal difference into consideration, Arsenal would need to average 3.1 (!) points a game from their last 9 games. In other words, Arsenal need to win all their remaining games, and improve their goal difference.
Of course, anything can happen, and Leicester (as well as Spurs and Man City) can have a wobble and drop their average points tally. But, in reality, Arsenal will probably still need to get close to maximum points to have any realistic hope of finishing champions.
So to the more pertinent question: can Arsenal finish in the top four?
The past five seasons Arsenal’s average point rate was 1.92 per game. That’s notably better than this season (1.79). But that said, the only time in the last five seasons when Arsenal had such a low points rates was in 2010-11 when they still finished 4th by a comfortable margin of 6 points.
Based on West Ham’s average (1.69), just 14 points from the last 9 games should be enough to see Arsenal in the Champions League for the 18th consecutive season, with all the dough that brings.
So don’t give up hope. Arsenal are still looking good for 4th, and Man Utd losing to West Brom only helps the cause.
Even in a season when the team has gone backwards, the maths still add up.
Wenger apologists should be able to sleep tonight.