The winning goal will be a header
That’s my gut feeling.
If it’s a big game, like the Champions League Final in Moscow tonight, I wait till the morning of the game to see if I have a gut feeling. Sometimes I don’t.
As always, May is about Cup finals.Captains lift trophies, the losers are devastated, and fans weep with joy and despair.
The Uefa Cup Final followed by the FA Cup Final, followed by the Champions League Final.
Zenit, Portsmouth, Man United ?
The big one is tonight at 7.45 pm and we all wonder : Will United play their normal attacking game? Is it who dares, wins ?
Not for Chelsea, clearly. They will hold their shape and hit diagonals and try to put Drogba above Evra on a cross from the left side. Joe Cole has been very quiet lately and maybe he has been saving it for tonight.
In the semi, Drogba scored two phenomenal goals against Liverpool, one to make it 1-0, another to make it 3-1. In those two moments, he was awesome. He found a level of focus, of energy, of determination, that you rarely see from anybody. On past form in big games, Drogba will be the difference. A dynamic gladiator who can bully defenders, Drogba may be able to bully Ferdinand and Vidic. Very few centre forwards can do that or even think about doing it.
Drogba the gladiator is very good at crash!bang!wallop! aerial combat but, funnily enough, I’ve always preferred him when he concentrates on playing football, rather than knocking people over or theatrics. If you watch him carefully over a period of time, you’ll see that Drogba is actually better at playing football than you think.
Carvalho has already said five players are leaving. But each of those five will give everything to make history. Ballack says he’s become even more ruthless in the last three months.
On the other hand, Manchester United’s players are all on long contracts and still young enough to come back in the final of 2009 or 2010. Tevez is always working, always thinking, never stops. Rooney is a great team player whose finishing could improve.
Are Chelsea really as strong in defence as their record suggests?
Well, Petr Cech is not the keeper he was, Terry can’t jump as high since that bumper car accident, and Carvalho gives you a chance because of the way he plays. Like Cannavaro, Carvalho loves to intercept, to nick the ball in front of his man. That could be dangerous against the stocky, sparky Rooney and Tevez. Rooney has matured. He is no longer the belligerent youth who gently pressed his studs into Carvalho’s groin in the 2006 World Cup quarter final against Portugal.
Everybody has a view on team selections in this game.
Sir Alex might go 4-5-1 for an hour and then bring on Tevez and Anderson. The trouble with that is that by then the game could be set into a war of attrition. The Scot would be better off looking at Chelsea’s last ten games, rather than looking at his own squad : Chelsea have struggled to put the ball in the net. Their team is a kind of conundrum. It’s full of big game players – like Essien, Ballack, Lampard, Joe Cole and Drogba – who have been waiting for this final, so they have not scored many goals in April or May.
Drogba may want his pal Malouda on the left to cross for him, which will make sense to Avram Grant. Shevchenko is a big game player too. If United don’t score in the first 30, their self-belief might wane because their record of beating Chelsea is not good. And there is a good chance that Chelsea’s self-belief will grow as the game goes on, if they survive an early blitz by the rhythmic Reds. If Rooney has five shots and hits the post twice and the keeper three times, Chelsea will know it’s their trophy
Slovakia’s Lubos Michel is a very honest referee who allowed far too much play-acting in the Celtic-Porto Uefa Cup Final of 2004, which infuriated Martin O’Neill. Carvalho played in that final.
Not much else to say. Sky’s 30 cameras will cover the game and supply the feed to ITV and the world. The kick-off is 10.45 Moscow time, so it’s a very long day for the fans. Each club has played three European Finals and won every time
On this sunny morning in London I’ve decided not to think about the game today, not to talk about it if I can avoid doing so. In sport I tend to be a reductionist, try to boil an event down to essentials.
At 7pm I will only be asking myself three questions.
1. In the panic to contain 41-goal Cristiano Ronaldo, will Chelsea leave a space for somebody else to score the goal ?
2. Am I superstitious? Because on this day in 1971, Chelsea won their first European trophy. They beat Real Madrid in a replay in Athens to win the European Cup Winners Cup on May 21, 1971.
3.Will Putin sit next to Abramovich?
Wouldn’t think so. Even though Abramovich has been in Moscow sorting out Putin’s future, arranging a pact. Among other things, there would be a security issue if they sat together.
This final would be more fun for neutrals if Man United or Chelsea was playing a Spanish or Italian club. The game will be tense, dramatic, perhaps controversial. There could be a red card. I won’t bet on the result because it’s too close to call.
I’m pretty sure it will be Under 2.5 goals but with that much talent on the field, that much determination on both sides, I won’t bet against three goals being scored. That could happen. Anything could happen. It’s unscripted. I want Manchester United to win.
Enjoy !