For decades the only certainties in life were death, taxes and Arsenal finishing in the top four, so watching Thursday night football is a shock to the system for Gunners fans, writes Martin Green.
While their Premier League rivals face the European elite in the Champions League, Arsenal are up against teams far lower down the European pecking order.
That involves trips to the frozen hinterland of northern Jamtland, playing in front of a crowd of fewer than 10,000 people in a poky little stadium. It is not quite the glamour trip to the Nou Camp or Allianz Arena that Arsenal fans have grown accustomed to. But, rather than getting thrashed by European royalty – last year’s 10-2 aggregate defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich was a particular embarrassment – Arsenal might actually have a chance of winning this competition.
They should absolutely go all guns blazing in a bid to do so. For the second season in a row, Arsenal look set to miss out on the top four. After this weekend’s results Arsenal are 13 points off 4th with a goal difference of 19 to make up. In February bookmakers had the Gunners as 16/1 to finish in the Champions League places. Now some have them at 250/1 (the majority at 100/1).
Missing out on Champions League football for a second year in a row would represent a devastating blow to Arsenal’s finances. The TV revenue clubs receive for participating is huge, and it helps their marketing teams secure better deals with sponsors.
The Premier League is an arms race nowadays, with Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea all bidding to outspend one another, so Arsenal need to pay high wages and high transfer fees to keep up. They are not bankrolled by an oligarch and they do not sell as much merchandise as Man Utd, while Stan Kroenke likes to cream a certain return on his investment in the form of annual dividends, so they need to bring in the cash or Arsene Wenger may be forced to sell players in order to plug gaping holes in the squad. Arsenal need a new goalkeeper, centre-back and defensive midfielder – when haven’t they? – and they require some readies to invest in the squad.
But they have a route back into the Promised Land: the winner of the Europa League qualifies for next season’s Champions League. It worked for Man Utd last year, when they finished sixth in the league but beat Ajax in the Europa League final, and that allowed them to splash the cash on Romelu Lukaku, Victor Lindelof and Nemanja Matic. They are now second in the table and into the last 16 of the Champions League.
Arsenal look all but certain to finish sixth in the league, so they have every reason to roll out all their big guns for the Europa League. There are just 8 teams left and only one of them is in the same league as Arsenal. If you check the Sun Bets football betting you will see that the Gunners are the second favourites at 3/1 to win the Europa League.
Only Atletico Madrid, perennial Champions League contenders, are ahead of them in the betting and that is understandable as Diego Simeone’s men are in fine form. They have a better defensive record than any other team in Europe’s top five leagues this season, and they are challenging Bacelona for the Spanish title. But Atletico lost to Chelsea and drew home and away with lowly Qarabag, causing them to drop down to this competition, so Arsenal could get a result against them.
They will have to rely on Alexandre Lacazette to lead the line, and the Europa League could be the perfect opportunity for the Frenchman to restore some confidence. He has scored less goals than expected since his big money summer move from Lyon, but he has not enjoyed great service, and he would benefit from a spell of games alongside Mesut Ozil and Henrikh Mkitaryan – both phenomenal creative talents.
If Wenger takes this competition seriously and fields the strongest team available to him, Arsenal have a great chance of success. There is a clear motivation to do so, and fans would love to see their team in another final, so we can only hope to see a strong starting 11 in all the remaining fixtures.
Author bio
Martin Green is an experienced sports writer and has been covering European football for many years. He is an Arsenal fan and would love to see Arsenal claim a historic Mickey Mouse double by claiming the Community Shield and Europa League.