In the Sunday Express , Harry Pratt said Peter Hill-Wood and the board are privately resigned to losing control of AFC.
If that’s true it’s the biggest Arsenal news since 2005, when they got the £260 million loan to build Ashburton Grove.
Harry Pratt’s “source” reckons that Lady Nina is vulnerable and could crack by the end of this year.
So I wonder : If she wants to sell her shares during the “lockdown agreement” period, she can say : This is the price I want. She mainly lives abroad and has no sentimental attachment to Arsenal, and she was only brought onto the board to prevent the sale of her stake. The other directors have first refusal and if they do not want to spend or borrow £90 million, she can sell to the highest bidder. That’s why there is such a rush to get Stan Kroenke on the board, so he can buy her shares.
But will Stan come on board? Does he really want her shares ?
We know that Arsenal begged Stan Kroenke to join the board last year. They’ve been courting him ever since. The AST is credited with building bridges between Kroenke Sports Enterprises and the club.
The key questions are (1) will Stan come inside the tent before the AGM ? and (2) if he joins the board will he want to appoint the CEO ? and (3) is he really inside the tent if he doesn’t buy more shares?
The Standard and now the Sunday Express reckon Lady Nina wants out. She wobbled last year, then ran to Danny, who kicked out David Dein, who sold to Usmanov for £75 million, and conventional wisdom since then has been that Lady Nina doesn’t need the money and will not sell till Danny gives her the nod.
Coming on the board would obviously give Stan Kroenke insider status and make him a permitted person in terms of other shareholders selling to him. He would have first rights on her stake before Usmanov, before the market, and before any third party. If Kroenke joins the board he will have 100% access to all their accounts and plans, and, being a super-shrewd strategic investor, will be able to assess the business, and figure out whether it’s worth putting any more money in. If Stan buys Lady Nina’s shares for about £90 million, he will have 27%. And the logical progression from there is to buy Danny Fiszman’s shares for at least £175 million.
But if Stan doesn’t want her shares, Usmanov will buy them. There are only two buyers.A third party would find the whole thing far too messy.
If Stan cared about football, he could make Arsenal the Manchester United of the 21st century. But he lives in St Louis, 4,000 miles away, and only cares about basketball. Therefore he would borrow the money to buy Arsenal. He can do that, even during a credit crunch, because his wife Ann can guarantee the loan, as she is one of the Wal-Mart daughters and worth over £3 billion.
Obviously, Danny Fiszman wants to maximise his legacy.To do that Danny has to ride out the credit crunch and to ride out the credit crunch he has to bring in Stan. That buys him time and it gives Stan time to consider his possible involvement with Arsenal’s future. Danny may be the only man on this planet who can talk Lady Nina into selling her shares to Stan. The problem could be that whatever Stan offers Lady Nina for her shares, Usmanov can double it. She could parcel them out to other directors but that would not give her the best price. And they don’t want them anyway. If Lady Nina sells, and has cash, she can buy other assets cheaply at this time of illiquidity.
In the meantime, Arsenal have apparently told Usmanov that they will never have a dialogue with him until he breaks links with David Dein. Usmanov apparently wrote to the club asking why MD Keith Edelman was sacked and he has not yet had a satisfactory answer.
Overall, what do I make of this soap opera ?
Well, it’s a mess and it’s very, very sad when friends fall out.
I first met Danny Fiszman on September 22 , 1996. It was on a Sunday morning at Highbury and he was with David Dein and it was after Arsene Wenger had just flown in from Tokyo to give his first press conference. Danny and David stood side by side and David did all the talking while Danny listened carefully. On that day they were two happy men, almost like brothers. But they fell out because Dein wanted to rent at Wembley and put the money into the team. He opposed the building of Ashburton Grove and that makes it far harder for Danny to hand over the club to Red & White Holdings.