Matt Scott wrote in The Guardian that Danny Fiszman has said privately that he intends to keep his shares beyond next July. That is, after the “lockdown” period in which the directors have agreed not to sell.
Thursday’s Daily Telegraph headline was: Kroenke refuses to cool interest in Arsenal.
David Bond said that relations were cooler than ever between AFC and Stan Kroenke, who has not signed the marketing agreement sent to him eight weeks ago, or bought the ITV’s 50% of the broadband rights. What does this all mean? Can we look at the facts and read the signals and make an educated guess?
Fact : Danny Fiszman was not at the last year’s AGM.. Guess : he won’t be at the 2008 AGM either.
Danny has sold his Hampstead mansion for £20 million, lives on Lake Geneva, flies in for matches, and is seeking tax exile status. His shares are worth £120 million and the papers have suggested that Danny doesn’t want to pay capital gains tax at 30%, on top of corporation tax at 10%.
So what is really going on? Can we see behind the spin? Can we read between the lines?
Last October, when Danny, the chief shareholder, did not turn up for the AGM, I was told by insiders that there was “nothing sinister” in his absence. I never believed that for five seconds.
Later Stan Kroenke bought ITV’s 9.9% after Danny sold 1% of the club to test the water, to see if there was a buyer out there. Then when Kroenke bought more shares to give himself 12.2%, Danny sent Hill-Wood and Edelman over to New York to meet Stan but he refused to sign up to their “lockdown” period, during which they wanted him to agree not to acquire more shares.
Now we are told that Kroenke has not signed the Arsenal-Colorado marketing agreement they negotiated and sent to him eight weeks ago, although Arsenal.com dutifully reports matches by his Colorado Rapids. And neither has he completed a £23 million deal to buy Arsenal’s broadband rights. The share price is now £6,700.
But you have to wonder : What is Danny Fiszman’s price?
If he sold in July 2008 would he want £8000 per share? If he sold now would he want £8,500 per share because he would have to pay tax? Would Danny want the new owner to pay his tax, in effect?
That would be good for Danny but bad for Stan, since if he paid Danny £8,500 per share he would have to give the same price to everybody else. That scenario would make the deal far more expensive.
In this situation, Stan is in a strategic position. He has already shown who is in charge by making Arsenal come running to him. We do not know what was proposed in that New York hotel but what we’re told was said could have been achieved with a phone call.
If Stan had signed that lockdown deal, agreeing not to increase his shareholding, Arsenal could have flogged the club to any old oligarch behind his back and made him look a complete idiot. In this situation, Stan could force his way onto the board but he is too patient to do that. He is in no hurry, so he won’t come over for the AGM in October. But, at the same time, he would not be happy if he thought Danny was using him as a stalking horse while he looks for a friendly billionaire who would buy the club and keep David Dein out of it.
In my considered opinion, Danny Fiszman is a seller.
He’s been on the board for 15 years and Arsenal has achieved great things in those 15 years, the stadium came in on time and on budget – a colossal achievement- but, as I’ve suggested before, Danny does not want be around after Arsene goes. He has worked very hard for the last four years but he knows that, with or without David Dein, Arsenal has a somewhat dysfunctional board whose directors don’t seem to talk to each other. He is well aware, as we are, that nobody on the Arsenal board is qualified to interview Guus Hiddink or Fabio Capello or anybody else for the manager’s job.
So that’s my take : Danny’s done his Arsenal work and now he wants to be paid for it. He can’t tout his shares around in an obvious way because that would be gross. He has more class than that. Also, the ownership of London’s biggest football club, the only top club that is still English-owned, is a very emotive issue. But, like any smart businessman, he wants to sell at the top of the market. He wants to sell at his price. He knows his price and Lady Nina will sell when Danny sells. Lansdowne Partners, who have about 3%, know their price because hedge funds always know their price.
Anyway, that’s enough for now. I’m a bit knackered this morning after going to Book Slam last night to see provocative Scots novelist Irvine Welsh and gifted comedienne Sophie Woolley, who will be huge.
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