I rarely bet on Arsenal. They win a lot of games but it suits me not to bet on them.
Last season I had a lot of bets on Man United.
But in the light of last season, I’ve now decided to align my football philosophy with my gambling philosophy.
My football philosophy is that the game is about players and sequences, and that every football match contains the previous match. Since the game is 90% confidence, you will have doubts if you have lost your previous game.
My gambling philosophy was : bet on home games and teams you are 100% sure about, teams that know to win, how to defend a lead, teams who know they are champions
So I won a lots of bets on United and backed them to beat Liverpool at Old Trafford but Torres took Vidic apart and Liverpool won 4-1.That shocked me and a few other people. But I reckoned it was a blip and I figured United would be stung and bounce back in their next game, which was at Fulham.
I rarely back away wins and respect Roy Hodgson hugely but I thought United would go to Craven Cottage and win. But Fulham beat them 2-0.
That’s why I’ve decided to align my gambling philosophy with my football philosophy. It makes sense : don’t bet on teams who have not won their previous game. There are loads of teams who won last week, so I will bet on them.
When I first opened an online betting account my guru was John, my gambling greengrocer, who is a Gooner.
He gave me three golden rules. In his original advice, he said,: “Don’t be patriotic, don’t be sentimental, don’t be greedy. Don’t bet on the team you support, don’t bet on England because you’re English. And don’t think you can win a treble. It’s hard enough to predict one match, let alone three.”
John breaks his own golden rules every week.
Through John I met Tony, who is hard to describe in two words. Tony says things like, “I was stupid. I bought two flats in Brighton, should have bought four. I haven’t put the rent up in five years.”
On Tony, John says, “He’s got two degrees – but I took £450 quid off him last night.”
Tony and John co-own a greyhound which has won some races but I’ve forgotten the dog’s name.
Tony no longer has to work full-time. He’s a serious student of Spanish football and in June he said, “We’re gonna clean up on La Liga next season. Forget the Premier League, it’s too competitive.”
Tony and John would normally have given me tips by this time on a Saturday but John and his Brazilian Mrs and their son are in Turkey. And Tony is in Brazil. I told him to send me his itinerary but he never did.
Emailed him last week : Where are you? No reply. He was in Rio for two days from August 22 and after that he said he was going to a place an hour away and he mentioned the town. When I blanked the name of the place, he said, “It’s where the rich play.”
La Liga kicks off today, Tony. Where are you?
Watching Man United v Arsenal on TV in Brazil, obviously.
Today a sensible punter will wait to see what Sir Alex’s midfield is before having a bet on the 5.15pm Sky game.
This morning I started to think not about the 90 minutes but about the 23 years since the day I met George Graham on the first day of the season in 1986 when Arsenal had just beaten Man United 1-0 with a goal by Charlie Nicholas.
I seem to have spent half my life writing previews of Arsenal v Man United and Man United v Arsenal.
The duopoly years made up 60% of the first edition of The Professor, pre-Abramovich.
Last november I wrote Nasri 2 Man Utd 1 : Arsenal are back in business!
UNITED will miss Tevez as well as Cristiano. Tenacious, honest and strong as a bullock, Carlos Tevez is much -underrated and a very good signing by Man City.
Can Arsenal play without Fabregas? I don’t think so. Will it be a draw? Probably. That is why I won’t bet. I never bet on games I think could be drawn.
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