If Fabio Capello beats Croatia 2-0 tonight, he’ll be hailed as the greatest Englishman since Winston Churchill.
But that ain’t gonna happen.
Croatia are No 5 in the world rankings. Their coach is a smart young Croatian who knows his players inside out. He had Modric and Corluka when he was their Under-21 boss.
At 39, Slaven Bilic was the youngest coach at Euro 2008. He’s already turned down Fulham, Hamburg and West Ham because he can work at bigger clubs.
Capello’s honeymoon was over as soon as he drew 2-2 with Czech Republic at Wembley last month. He knows that and England fans know that. It’s now : what can you show us ?
If we lose to Croatia again, 20 million football fans will ask : Why import an Italian and pay him £24m over four years if he’s gonna lose, just as Steve McClaren did? What’s the point?
Personally, I don’t think England will lose 3-2 because they’re not good enough to score two goals, or bad enough to concede three.
But we shall see. I’ve been wrong before. Many times.
Croatia is a young country of 4 million people. They want to build an identity and join the EEC. Their footballers play for each other and have a fine manager. As a team they have passion, skill, shape and teamwork – all the qualities we lack. They are more balanced and resourceful than we are.They can adapt to our style of play better than we can adapt to their style. They can vary the tempo of their attacks better than us, and can vary their play during different phases of a game. They make us look one-dimensional and shabby.
Yes, some of the Croatians play in the TV-hyped bubble of the EPL, and earn big money, but playing for their country is the biggest thing in their lives. They care more, they play harder and less selfishly.
On Monday morning, a friend of a friend, who is a photojournalist, was in Barcelona and was walking past the stadium where England beat Andorra 2-0 the night before. He was very surprised to see England training and he watched the session through a gap in the gate. He said that they were practicing set-pieces, with Heskey featuring heavily.
I’ve been wondering about that. What will Capello’s game-plan be? How can he make sure this game is a draw while still giving himself a chance to nick a win?
What will he do with Walcott? He can run fast and Beckham can only jog. Barry and Lampard can play to orders. Lamps is the son of a pro, so he can play with positional discipline. But Beckham and Joe Cole lack positional discipline. How will that work? Can Beckham do an hour as a static quarterback?
What will he do with Rooney? How can he keep Rooney from chasing back into midfield? Has it got to the point where, if Rooney can’t score a goal and can’t do what he’s told, will he be dropped ? Capello had a row with Rooney and Joe Cole about that on the touchline on Saturday.
For two years we’ve seen Rooney try to do too much in too many areas of the field.
He doesn’t play intelligently, as a No.10 should. He should loiter in the hole, get a nice pass, turn, and run at defences. That’s what he’s good at. That’s what he does best. That’s where he can maximise his talent. That’s where he terrifies defenders. He should not be out wide. And he should not be chasing back into the left back position as he did in Moscow and fouling the Russian and then diving into his own penalty area to make it look as if HE had been fouled. That was quite ridiculous.
Prediction : if Capello plays Joe Cole and Walcott, England WILL get some free-kicks. If they can score from one of those, maybe they can share the points.
Ideally, Capello would want to be solid. He’d prefer Hargreaves and Barry, I’m sure, for this game. Or Hargreaves and Carrick, because Carrick keeps passing the ball, however deep he is pushed. Capello is pragmatic, a belt-and-braces tactician, so he would want two anchormen and a clean sheet. If you’re facing a team of skilful inside forwards who can play round you and through you, you want to lock up the zone in front of the D, since that is the danger area, a place from which shots and killer passes can send you crashing into a black hole of abuse, depression and paranoia..
Capello looked at England and saw a team that did not believe in itself. He saw guys who play for Chelsea and Man United and then put on white shirts but cannot play like they do for Chelsea or Man United. That’s because Lampard doesn’t have Makelele or Drogba and Rooney doesn’t have Tevez or Cristiano Ronaldo.
Do we have a Ronaldo? No. Do we have a Tevez. No. But the closest player in style to Carlos Tevez is Cole. Like Tevez, Joe Cole is spiky, tricky, resilient, energetic and brave. He can get into scoring positions. He can create chances with the ball and, he’s now realised, off the ball. Joe Cole has grown up now. He’s 26.
Bottom line, Capello might think : the Ukraine-England games are more important. And Ukraine are not as a good as Croatia. Last time around, after 12 qualifying games for Euro 2008, Croatia had 29 points, Russia 24, England 23, Israel 23. Russia, Engkand and Israel all won 7 games out of 12.
Ultimately, Capello has to get one more point than Ukraine to reach South Africa in 2010. That’s why he wants to draw this game tonight.
If we get there, this is what our shape should be : Back four, two anchormen, Stevie G in a free role, with Joe Cole, Rooney and Agbonlahor interchanging. That’s my 2002 England team. Will it ever play? Not unless we qualify.
Let’s face it, the current England team is an embarrassment. It’s not the first time it’s been an embarrassment but it’s the first time they’ve been an embarrassment under a good manager.
Robson, Hoddle, Venables and Eriksson gave us respectable failure and a few high moments. The clueless and loquacious Graham Taylor gave us embarrassment. Kevin Keegan, a cheerleader and patriot, embarrassed himself by accepting the job, although we qualified in 2002.
On the night that Keegan announced his squad for Holland & Belgium, I bet Garth Crooks £10 at Wembley that Keegan would not win a game. To my surprise, we beat Germany 1-0 and I still owe Garth £10 and when I see him I’ll pay him. I’m very embarrassed by that debt, as I don’t owe money to any man or any company, except him. Email me, Garth, and your cheque will be in the post today.
In general, I still love good football, and if England can’t play good football, I’ll watch other teams. Argentina -Paraguay was a tremendous game even after Tevez was sent off. A thrilling 1-1 draw. Last night Blackburn’s Roque Santa Cruz had two assists as Paraguay went top of the South American group table with a 2-0 win over Venezuela.
Austria 3 Francenal 1 was the kind of scoreline that makes us wonder how much longer Raymond Domenech will be in charge. He’s dropped Nasri for the Serbia game tonight.
L’Equipe thinks the France team will be : Mandanda – Sagna, Gallas, Abidal, Clichy – Toulalan, Lassana Diarra – Govou, Gourcuff – Henry, Benzema.
The captain is you know who. And that’s just stupid. TH14 is good at being a star but he’s no captain.